In a notable turnaround, Bitcoin has achieved a win rate equal to that of the S&P 500, outperforming the index in 50% of US trading sessions over the last 90 days. This marks a significant recovery for Bitcoin, which had been underperforming for an extended period, with its win rate hovering below 50% since March 2025. The data, sourced from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, indicates that Bitcoin's average per-session gains have also slightly surpassed those of the S&P 500, suggesting a renewed strength in the cryptocurrency.
This development is particularly relevant given the historical context of the US midterm elections. Traditionally, when Democrats sweep Congress under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has seen average gains of 10.7% in the subsequent three months. This pattern could indicate a favorable environment for both stocks and Bitcoin, as the correlation between the two has strengthened since August. Analysts have noted that the recent election results may lead to a bullish sentiment in the markets, potentially benefiting both asset classes.
Looking ahead, market participants will be keen to see if Bitcoin can maintain this momentum and exceed its 50% win rate against the S&P 500. A sustained recovery could signal a broader shift in investor sentiment, potentially leading to increased interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. Additionally, global markets will be watching closely, as any significant movement in Bitcoin could influence currency and stock trends across Africa and beyond, where crypto adoption is on the rise.